Germanium sits in every LWIR lens, every thermal weapon sight, every fiber-optic preform — and roughly 60% of global production sits in China, with U.S. import reliance above 50% of consumption. Since 2023, Beijing has turned that concentration into policy. If you run an IR program, the timeline below is not history; it is your supply-chain risk register.
The timeline, verified
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| Jul 3, 2023 | MOFCOM Announcement No. 23/2023: export controls on gallium and germanium announced; in force Aug 1, 2023. Chinese Ge exports fall from 7,965 kg (Jul 2023) to 0 kg (Aug 2023). |
| Dec 3, 2024 | Announcement No. 46/2024: total ban on Ga/Ge/Sb exports to the U.S., plus prohibition on U.S. military end-users. |
| Feb 4, 2025 | Controls extended to tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum, indium. |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Under the U.S.–China trade truce, the U.S.-directed ban is suspended until Nov 27, 2026 — but the 2023 global licensing regime and the U.S.-military prohibition remain in force. |
| Jul 2026 | Chinese exports remain depressed: 36,656 kg (2023) → 7,520 kg through Sep 2025. |
| Germanium Price (USGS / market) | |
|---|---|
| 2023 | $1,392 / kg |
| 2024 | $1,991 / kg |
| 2025 | ~$4,100 / kg |
| Jul 9, 2026 | $8,597 / kg (+84% y/y) |
Washington's answer — real money, long lead times
The policy response is underway: on April 16, 2024 the DoD invested $14.4M (DPA Title III) in domestic germanium substrate production (5N Semiconductors, Utah); on March 20, 2025 Executive Order 14241 ("Immediate Measures to Increase American Mineral Production") was signed; April 15, 2025 brought EO 14272, opening a Section 232 investigation into processed critical minerals; and on July 4, 2025 the One Big Beautiful Bill (P.L. 119-21) directed $2 billion to the National Defense Stockpile Transaction Fund. All of it matters — none of it ships germanium to your polishing line this quarter.
The hedge that already works: recycling
About 30% of world germanium consumption already comes from recycled material, and more than 60% of the Ge used in optical devices is routinely recycled as new scrap (USGS). The United States has the capacity to recycle both pre-consumer and post-consumer germanium — including optics recovered from decommissioned military equipment. Every kilogram reclaimed domestically is a kilogram that no export license controls and no truce expiration threatens.
The dual-sourcing math
Suppose the truce holds until November 27, 2026 — then what? Your program still faces a licensing regime on every Chinese shipment and a hard prohibition on anything touching U.S. military end-use. Price has already answered for the market: a 6× increase in three years. The arithmetic of a second domestic source plus a reclaim loop on your own scrap is no longer a resilience luxury; at $8,597/kg it is a line item that pays for itself.